In the best of times, the impact of a global flu pandemic on the UK economy would be horrifying. Unfortunately, this is not the best of times, and it is frightening to contemplate what Swine Flu’s full effect could be on a UK economy that is still strained by the worst recession since the Great Depression. However, this is the reality that people across the world and in the UK must now contend with, especially if the World Health Organization's estimate comes true and over 2 billion people become infected with Swine Flu across the globe in the next two years. Economically, this would cause an obscene drop in production as manpower dwindled across industries, while more and more people grew sick or refused to come to work. It is not unconscionable to believe that whole businesses and perhaps whole industries could be put on a standstill as traveling or even going out to public venues for dinner or entertainment would become terrifying and dangerous ventures. Such an outbreak would make last year’s Swine Flu cases appear to be just the first drop in a monstrous monsoon. However, even last year’s comparatively ‘minor’ Swine Flu outbreak wreaked havoc in the education system and caused many schools to close across the world, including five in the UK, within weeks of the first confirmed cases. However, on a much larger scale such an epidemic would likely shut down not only schools but businesses as well. This while the UK is still mired in an extensive recession, and with the World Health Organization already calling Swine Flu a pandemic (even before the outbreak season) there is little doubt that there is much to be anxious and uncertain about regarding the UK's economic future. However, according to Health Secretary Andy Burnham in his statement to the Commons, the government is well-prepared to fight the flu pandemic and is currently instituting a plan that includes, "large quantities of antivirals, a National Pandemic Flu Service [that is] about to launch, and a vaccine [which is] on the way." As well, the UK government currently has more Tami-flu, an antiviral, than anyone else in the world. Reportedly, it is enough to cover 80% of the entire UK population (Cheng 2009). Unfortunately, even with such precautionary measures being taken, an already sensitive market seems likely to retreat this winter from some of its recent gains. As was seen with the SARS panic of 2003, which claimed over 800 lives, fear and anxiety can create havoc even in a strong market. Specific industries were impacted the most, namely the transportation and service industries, as people tried to avoid human contact and traveling outside of their homes as much as possible. Also during the SARS threat of 2003, the East Asian markets plummeted from the terror of the SARS virus, which caused the regional GDP to fall over 2% (Brahmbhatt 2005). According to Milan Brahmbhatt, a leading economist of the World Bank, an analogous worldwide panic over Swine Flu could also create a similar, worldwide GDP drop of 2% that would cost the globe an estimated 800 billion in US dollars (over 483 billion pounds). This would, of course, revitalize a recently retreating recession. Unfortunately, although the UK government can prepare for the Swine Flu pandemic, it is unlikely that they will be able to stop the swelling fear and paranoia of a widespread flu outbreak. And as the most recent recession has taught the world, fear and paranoia in the market can be just as harmful to the economy as a flu pandemic. Sources 1. Brahmbhatt, Milan. “Avian Influenza: Economic and Social Impacts.” The World Bank Group. September 23, 2005. http://go.worldbank.org/YELWWUIAY0 2. Cheng, Maria. “WHO: Save tamiflu for the young, old, and pregnant.” Associated Press. August 22, 2009. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/8670027 3. Lynn, Jonathan. “WHO Maintains 2 billion Estimate for Likely H1N1 Cases.” Reuters. August 4, 2009. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L4634663.htm