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UK General Elections and the Credit Crunch
Who Will Decide Britain’s Economic Future?
With the UK general election coming up in May, not surprisingly, the polls continue to show that the voters are most concerned with the economy. Each party has of course delivered their "manifesto" with the economy a major focus. Each party naturally promises to address the credit crunch, lower unemployment, decrease debt, not increase taxes, etc. As always, the means to the end is the issue. The voter will have to choose whose promises they think will succeed if implemented.
Labour Party
The Labour Party would add extra mortgage protection, increase the threshold of ISAs to over £10,000, increase the Pension Credit, increase training and support for people to get back to work, , and increase redundancy pay to £380 a week. Labour would continue elimination of the Stamp Duties for properties valued under £175,000 and maintain Labour's other specific tax policies instituted while in power such as the £145 tax cut to basic rate taxpayers and the increased child tax credit. Business policies would allow businesses to spread out tax payments and pursue policies that would provide more cash to encourage employers to add jobs.
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party would freeze public sector pay except for the lowest paid. They would cut Whitehall costs, cap public sector pensions, and review the state pension age. Tax measures would stop tax credits to high earners, abolish tax on new jobs, freeze council tax for two years, suspend Stamp Duty for first-time buyers, cut the main tax rate for corporations, and reduce tax on small businesses. They would strive to make Britain Europe's leading hi-tech exporter, simplify employment law, and increase government procurement from small firms.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats would restore the link between state pension annual increases and earnings, provide immediate help for the unemployed, and provide paid internships for those on Jobseekers' Allowance. Tax reform would raise the income tax threshold to £10,000, cut the corporation tax rate, restrict pension contributions tax relief to the basic rate, reduce the capital gains tax exemption to £2,000 implement a per-plane tax, and eliminate Air Passenger Duty. To help business the would introduce measures to cut red tape, business rates for smaller businesses, give small businesses a choice of being taxed on cash flow, and overhaul competition powers.
Bottom Line
Austerity is a word often used to describe the Conservative position the problem for the voter is where exactly where the axe will fall. It seems doubtful that Labour will be able to spare budgets cuts in the years ahead, but the Labour platform is not based on.
British consumer prices have risen presumably as the result of ending the VAT cut and have squeezed disposable incomes at a time when the run-up to the election obstructs government spending. A weak economy could shatter Labour's hopes of survival.
Polls indicate that there is a realistic probability of a hung parliament. They point to a Conservative win but the Tories will need a swing of more than 120 parliamentary seats (MPs) for a clear majority. Does the strong showing of the UKIP in the 2009 EU elections indicate the UKIP could split the Conservative vote (remember that Conservative MPs created the UKIP) and prevent a clear Tory majority over Labour?
If this happens, the Liberal Democrats views will benefit the most especially in any coalition government with the Conservatives or Labour. More importantly, will it be a long-term coalition government or lead to the worse case scenario of 1974 and quickly send Britain back to the polls?
What is the bottom line? If the election results mirror February polls Cameron will take residence in No. 10. Will Cameron have an overall majority? No one knows.
Elections and the recession
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